The Office for National Statistics released the July retail sales (non-foods) figures yesterday. The data surprised a few people, after all despite England’s performance in the world cup, June figures had been bolstered by the tournament, so the analysts were forecasting growth of no more than 0.4%. The real number overall was a 1.1% increase – almost three times the forecast. It was patchy, department stores were flat, sports goods and jewellery were up almost 2% (inspired perhaps by players and their wives?) but overall an unexpectedly good result.
All well and good (and no doubt disappointing the Cassandra’s in the media who seem to be desperate for a double dip recession so they have guaranteed jobs and something to write about), that’s the macro picture, but what’s it like in the real world?
If you’re a retailer in the borough did you experience growth in July? At a little over 1% as an average would you have even noticed? If you’re a buyer do you feel confident about the next couple of months or are you being more careful than ever?
My concern is for local retailers. If the economy worsens they always seem to be first in line to lose business and if the economy is doing well (even if unexpectedly well), the supermarkets always seem to use their pointy elbows to get more of the benefit.
J.F. Kennedy once remarked that "the best time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining" – get things sorted out whilst the weather holds up. Local retailers need to think about what might happen if the autumn spending review does have the effect many are predicting and start planning now.
And you needn’t be defensive about your marketing – you can have access to all of the tools, insights and media that Sainsbury or Tesco have at a fraction of the price….I’ll let you work out how, but give me a call on 07877 568 250 if it’s not clear.
Have a lovely bank holiday.
dw
